Crude oil prices rose by around 9 percent last week.

Today's Chart: CRUDEOIL 

Overview :

Crude oil prices rose by around 9 percent  last week. After hitting the psychological level of $50 and remain stable above the EMA50. Support is seen near a  vertical down ward trend line and resistance level  at $49.03, while resistance is seen near a EMA200  level at $51.94. Expected trading range for today $49.03 support level and $51.94 resistance level. On an intra day basis, we expect the positive momentum to continue the short term bearish trend. On the upside resistance level at $50.11, if market break this resistance level upside breakout is expected with potential target of $51.54

Technical- Levels

	R2	R1	S1	S2
Gold	1186	1171	1159	1149
SILVER	16.24	16.11	15.73	15.52
CRUDE OIL	53.17	51.14	47.45	45.67
COPPER	2.4693	2.4419	2.3863	2.3507
NATURAL GAS	2.614	2.564	2.492	2.453
PLATINUM	1003	996	976	965
PALLADIUM	742	721	700	683

Five Points which can drive markets early this week

The market hasn't made any big moves so far but a few are beginning to brew

1. Yen strength
2. GBP strength
3. Oil weakness
4. Bonds bid
5. China worries, China stimulus

The market hasn't made any big moves so far but a few are beginning to brew:
1. Yen strength
This is all about negative sentiment in stocks. USD/JPY is down 27 pips. The Nikkei finished the morning session down 1.14%, Shanghai stocks are down 0.54% and S&P 500 futures are down 0.4%. Earlier I wrote about why stock markets could fall early this week.

2. GBP strength
The pound is keeping pace with the yen, up about 20 pips. But let's put that into perspective; since the high on September 18, cable has been in a 6 day, nearly 500 pips swoon. A 20 pip bounce doesn't even qualify as a dead cat bounce. I highlighted some levels earlier.

3. Oil weakness
All else being equal, sell oil. Crude is down about 1%. Rig count numbers on Friday were bullish but a small bounce was wiped out quickly. Earlier last week, inventory numbers were bullish but a bounce was wiped out within hours and oil finished way down. At some point this year, oil storage capacity will max out and it will be dumped onto the market at any price.

4. Bonds bid
Bonds are catching a small bid, pushing 10-year US yields down 2 bps in early trading. There was talk of a China bid but it's also part of the risk aversion theme.

5. China worries, China stimulus
Two stories out of China early this week. The first is a plunge in industrial profits (negative) but the second is about fresh stimulus (potentially very positive). The second story hasn't gotten much traction yet but I think it could.


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FOREX-Dollar edges lower ahead of this week's payrolls, China survey

• 
  
  
  
  
  
  USD May Consolidate Before Pushing Higher
• USDJPY 120.32 with a general USD+ sentiment so far as Europe gets underway.
• USD/JPY is poised for a big break USD/JPY finished last week strong with a 75 pip rally in the final six hours of trading.
• European Factors to Watch-Futures fall, Spain in focus after Catalan result.
• FOREX-Dollar edges lower ahead of this week's payrolls, China survey
• EM ASIA FX-Baht, peso edge higher; ringgit slips
• Oil prices fall on slowing global economic growth outlook
• Japan leading index CI July final 105.0 vs 104.9 prev
• Option expiries 10am NY cut today 28 Sept
• Report: China expected to unveil new growth measures. More rate cuts coming
• Chinese August industrial profits -8.8% y/y vs -2.9% prior
• Eurostoxx 50 futures down 1.2% in early European trading

• Softer sentiment as Europe gets underway

DAX futures -1.2%

CAC40 -1.0%

FTSE -0.7%

Bund futures up 28 at 155.71

Nikkei 225 closes down -1.32% at 17,645.11

• A steady session after early dip

-235.40

open 17811.12

high 17886.49

low 17562.80

USDJPY 120.26

Australia's S&P/ASX200 closes up +1.24% at 5104.60

• Switzerland opens investigation of precious metals manipulation

-those banks include UBS, Deutsche, Julius Baer, HSBC, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Mitsui

suspicion relates to possible co-ordination of prices, namely bid/ask spreads

expects resolution in probe some time in 2016/2017

• Mr Yawnfest speaking in Osaka and delivering the same old drivel price trend is improving

1. will adjust policy if there are changes in price trend
2. sees reaching 2% price target in around H1 2016
3. further momentum needed to achieve 2% target
4. BOJ easing is exerting intended effect
5. rehang 2% target could come earlier or later depending on oil price

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