Crude oil price provided more bearish bias yesterday to record new bottom level that reached $36.62 level.

Comex Market Updates : Crude oil price provided more bearish bias yesterday to record new bottom level that reached $36.62 level.

Technical - Levels

OVERVIEW :

Crude oil price provided more bearish bias yesterday to record new bottom level that reached $36.62 level. The fact that market broke down below there indicate that market are continue going to lower. We will keep our main bearish trend expectation, supported by the negative pressure that comes from EMA50. Momentum of MACD (moving average convergence divergence) still generating a sell signal. On its 4 hourly chart, Resistance is seen near the SMA20 at $39.00, while support is seen near the at $35 level. Fundamentally oil market oversupplied, reluctance by the OPEC nations to cut its oil output, rising inventories in the US, warmer than normal weather in the US will result in lower demand for crude and its variants. Hence, oil prices will trade lower in today’s session. 

                                           

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GBPUSD is looking bearish on charts

Pivot Points

	S3	S2	S1	PIVOT	R1	R2	R3
EUR/USD	1.0975	1.1002	1.1025	1.1052	1.1075	1.1102	1.1125
GBP/USD	1.5184	1.5232	1.5264	1.5312	1.5344	1.5392	1.5424
USD/JPY	119.06	119.60	120.03	120.57	121.00	121.54	121.97
USD/CHF	0.9739	0.9770	0.9815	0.9846	0.9891	0.9922	0.9967
AUD/USD	0.7071	0.7123	0.7158	0.7210	0.7245	0.7297	0.7332
EUR/GBP	0.7161	0.7175	0.7199	0.7213	0.7237	0.7251	0.7275
USD/CAD	1.3059	1.3104	1.3185	1.3230	1.3311	1.3356	1.3437
NZD/USD	0.6673	0.6713	0.6739	0.6779	0.6805	0.6845	0.6871

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SUMMARY:

The secondary trend of GBPUSD is sideways on charts. In its 4 hourly chart, the pair is sustaining above its rising trend line and is likely to give break out at downside. It is not sustaining at higher levels and consolidating with strong negative bias to show downside movement in the market. Its 30 and 200 DMA are also supporting the upcoming bearish trend in the pair. It is having an important support at the level of 1.5280. If it breaks its support level and sustains below it then we can expect it to show further bearish movement in the pair.

 

INDICATORS:-

MACD is sustaining in selling territory supporting the upcoming bearish trend in the pair.

RSI is also sustaining near the selling territory indicating the upcoming bearish trend in the pair.

STRATEGY: GBPUSD is looking bearish on charts for next few trading session. One can go for sell on higher level strategy for this pair for intra day to mid term positions.

Crude oil prices rose by around 9 percent last week.

Today's Chart: CRUDEOIL 

Overview :

Crude oil prices rose by around 9 percent  last week. After hitting the psychological level of $50 and remain stable above the EMA50. Support is seen near a  vertical down ward trend line and resistance level  at $49.03, while resistance is seen near a EMA200  level at $51.94. Expected trading range for today $49.03 support level and $51.94 resistance level. On an intra day basis, we expect the positive momentum to continue the short term bearish trend. On the upside resistance level at $50.11, if market break this resistance level upside breakout is expected with potential target of $51.54

Technical- Levels

	R2	R1	S1	S2
Gold	1186	1171	1159	1149
SILVER	16.24	16.11	15.73	15.52
CRUDE OIL	53.17	51.14	47.45	45.67
COPPER	2.4693	2.4419	2.3863	2.3507
NATURAL GAS	2.614	2.564	2.492	2.453
PLATINUM	1003	996	976	965
PALLADIUM	742	721	700	683

U.S. exports are on track to decline this year for the first time since the financial crisis.

• U.S. exports are on track to decline this year for the first time since the financial crisis.
• Saudi’s Aramco offers further discounts to Asia & the US
• USD: US Non-manufacturing PMI expected to slip – TDS
• EURUSD upside potential capped – Rabobank
• UK's Osborne says there a lot of risks in world economy

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Oil Falls 1% as Demand Doubts Rise -
Oil prices fell around 1 percent on Friday, heading for a weekly decline, as weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data weighed on the energy demand outlook and Hurricane Joaquin veered away from oil installations in the U.S. East Coast.

Gold Rises After NFP Stumble and Palladium Surge : 
Gold held the biggest advance in almost nine months after figures showed that U.S. payrolls rose less than expected and wages stagnated, reducing the possibility of an interest rate increase this year.


Trade Setups in USD-pairs around September US NFPs -
Talking Points: ST EURUSD triangle begins to break lower; $1.1085 critical support. USDJPY remains rangebound, although NFPs could change that. See the DailyFX economic calendar for Thursday, October 1, 2015.

Five Points which can drive markets early this week

The market hasn't made any big moves so far but a few are beginning to brew

1. Yen strength
2. GBP strength
3. Oil weakness
4. Bonds bid
5. China worries, China stimulus

The market hasn't made any big moves so far but a few are beginning to brew:
1. Yen strength
This is all about negative sentiment in stocks. USD/JPY is down 27 pips. The Nikkei finished the morning session down 1.14%, Shanghai stocks are down 0.54% and S&P 500 futures are down 0.4%. Earlier I wrote about why stock markets could fall early this week.

2. GBP strength
The pound is keeping pace with the yen, up about 20 pips. But let's put that into perspective; since the high on September 18, cable has been in a 6 day, nearly 500 pips swoon. A 20 pip bounce doesn't even qualify as a dead cat bounce. I highlighted some levels earlier.

3. Oil weakness
All else being equal, sell oil. Crude is down about 1%. Rig count numbers on Friday were bullish but a small bounce was wiped out quickly. Earlier last week, inventory numbers were bullish but a bounce was wiped out within hours and oil finished way down. At some point this year, oil storage capacity will max out and it will be dumped onto the market at any price.

4. Bonds bid
Bonds are catching a small bid, pushing 10-year US yields down 2 bps in early trading. There was talk of a China bid but it's also part of the risk aversion theme.

5. China worries, China stimulus
Two stories out of China early this week. The first is a plunge in industrial profits (negative) but the second is about fresh stimulus (potentially very positive). The second story hasn't gotten much traction yet but I think it could.


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FOREX-Dollar edges lower ahead of this week's payrolls, China survey

• 
  
  
  
  
  
  USD May Consolidate Before Pushing Higher
• USDJPY 120.32 with a general USD+ sentiment so far as Europe gets underway.
• USD/JPY is poised for a big break USD/JPY finished last week strong with a 75 pip rally in the final six hours of trading.
• European Factors to Watch-Futures fall, Spain in focus after Catalan result.
• FOREX-Dollar edges lower ahead of this week's payrolls, China survey
• EM ASIA FX-Baht, peso edge higher; ringgit slips
• Oil prices fall on slowing global economic growth outlook
• Japan leading index CI July final 105.0 vs 104.9 prev
• Option expiries 10am NY cut today 28 Sept
• Report: China expected to unveil new growth measures. More rate cuts coming
• Chinese August industrial profits -8.8% y/y vs -2.9% prior
• Eurostoxx 50 futures down 1.2% in early European trading

• Softer sentiment as Europe gets underway

DAX futures -1.2%

CAC40 -1.0%

FTSE -0.7%

Bund futures up 28 at 155.71

Nikkei 225 closes down -1.32% at 17,645.11

• A steady session after early dip

-235.40

open 17811.12

high 17886.49

low 17562.80

USDJPY 120.26

Australia's S&P/ASX200 closes up +1.24% at 5104.60

• Switzerland opens investigation of precious metals manipulation

-those banks include UBS, Deutsche, Julius Baer, HSBC, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Mitsui

suspicion relates to possible co-ordination of prices, namely bid/ask spreads

expects resolution in probe some time in 2016/2017

• Mr Yawnfest speaking in Osaka and delivering the same old drivel price trend is improving

1. will adjust policy if there are changes in price trend
2. sees reaching 2% price target in around H1 2016
3. further momentum needed to achieve 2% target
4. BOJ easing is exerting intended effect
5. rehang 2% target could come earlier or later depending on oil price

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