Five Points which can drive markets early this week

The market hasn't made any big moves so far but a few are beginning to brew

1. Yen strength
2. GBP strength
3. Oil weakness
4. Bonds bid
5. China worries, China stimulus

The market hasn't made any big moves so far but a few are beginning to brew:
1. Yen strength
This is all about negative sentiment in stocks. USD/JPY is down 27 pips. The Nikkei finished the morning session down 1.14%, Shanghai stocks are down 0.54% and S&P 500 futures are down 0.4%. Earlier I wrote about why stock markets could fall early this week.

2. GBP strength
The pound is keeping pace with the yen, up about 20 pips. But let's put that into perspective; since the high on September 18, cable has been in a 6 day, nearly 500 pips swoon. A 20 pip bounce doesn't even qualify as a dead cat bounce. I highlighted some levels earlier.

3. Oil weakness
All else being equal, sell oil. Crude is down about 1%. Rig count numbers on Friday were bullish but a small bounce was wiped out quickly. Earlier last week, inventory numbers were bullish but a bounce was wiped out within hours and oil finished way down. At some point this year, oil storage capacity will max out and it will be dumped onto the market at any price.

4. Bonds bid
Bonds are catching a small bid, pushing 10-year US yields down 2 bps in early trading. There was talk of a China bid but it's also part of the risk aversion theme.

5. China worries, China stimulus
Two stories out of China early this week. The first is a plunge in industrial profits (negative) but the second is about fresh stimulus (potentially very positive). The second story hasn't gotten much traction yet but I think it could.


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FOREX-Dollar edges lower ahead of this week's payrolls, China survey

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  USD May Consolidate Before Pushing Higher
• USDJPY 120.32 with a general USD+ sentiment so far as Europe gets underway.
• USD/JPY is poised for a big break USD/JPY finished last week strong with a 75 pip rally in the final six hours of trading.
• European Factors to Watch-Futures fall, Spain in focus after Catalan result.
• FOREX-Dollar edges lower ahead of this week's payrolls, China survey
• EM ASIA FX-Baht, peso edge higher; ringgit slips
• Oil prices fall on slowing global economic growth outlook
• Japan leading index CI July final 105.0 vs 104.9 prev
• Option expiries 10am NY cut today 28 Sept
• Report: China expected to unveil new growth measures. More rate cuts coming
• Chinese August industrial profits -8.8% y/y vs -2.9% prior
• Eurostoxx 50 futures down 1.2% in early European trading

• Softer sentiment as Europe gets underway

DAX futures -1.2%

CAC40 -1.0%

FTSE -0.7%

Bund futures up 28 at 155.71

Nikkei 225 closes down -1.32% at 17,645.11

• A steady session after early dip

-235.40

open 17811.12

high 17886.49

low 17562.80

USDJPY 120.26

Australia's S&P/ASX200 closes up +1.24% at 5104.60

• Switzerland opens investigation of precious metals manipulation

-those banks include UBS, Deutsche, Julius Baer, HSBC, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Mitsui

suspicion relates to possible co-ordination of prices, namely bid/ask spreads

expects resolution in probe some time in 2016/2017

• Mr Yawnfest speaking in Osaka and delivering the same old drivel price trend is improving

1. will adjust policy if there are changes in price trend
2. sees reaching 2% price target in around H1 2016
3. further momentum needed to achieve 2% target
4. BOJ easing is exerting intended effect
5. rehang 2% target could come earlier or later depending on oil price

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Global stocks mostly lower. Investors await Yellen's speech for fresh clues on the Fed’s plan to raise rates

Stocks pared morning losses, but still ended moderately lower ahead of Yellen's speech:

U.S. stocks dropped but pared their steepest intraday declines, as worries over slowing global growth lingered.

Dollardips before Yellenspeech-Thursday's markets news so far

Dow futures were briefly down more than 150 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also traded lower.

Treasury yields held lower, with the 2-year yield at 0.68 percent and the 10-year yield at 2.10 percent.
The U.S. dollar traded lower against major world currencies, with the euro at $1.125 and the yen at 119.4 yen against the greenback.

Stocks remain stuck in low gear following a late-August selloff, and last week’s decision by the Federal Reserve to keep rates near zero affirmed investors’ fears that growth had hit a rough patch.

The S&P 500 lost 6.52, or 0.3%, to 1932.24, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 18.27, or 0.4%, to 4734.48.

Bond prices rose, sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling to 2.125% from 2.144% Wednesday.

U.S. stocks have generated wide swings in recent sessions since a late-August slide sent major indexes into “correction” territory, which is marked by a decline of 10% or more from a recent peak.

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AUD/USD continued its fall and hit the round number

AUD/USD continued its fall and hit the round number. It actually dipped below the 70 cent number, but the break is far from being confirmed.

Will it be carried lower by global gloom or can it recover?

This is basically an extension of the fall seen yesterday, that was triggered by the weak Chinese data. The independent Caixin manufacturing PMI for September deteriorated to a new low: 47 points, the lowest since the crisis.

In Australia we didn’t have much to trigger this. Yesterday’s CB Leading Index came out at +0.3% and the next piece of meaningful news comes only next week. Nevertheless, weakness in commodity prices and commodity currencies is affecting the Aussie.

The fall so far only reached 0.6988. A confirmation is still awaited. The next level on the downside is the round 0.69. A lot depends on the global mood.

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RIP Shaikh Rashid bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum

Mourning declared following the death of HH Sheikh Rashid bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum

Three days of mourning have been declared following the death of HH Sheikh Rashid bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

Sheikh Rashid was the eldest son of HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai.

Al Dewan, Dubai Ruler’s Court, has declared three days mourning in Dubai, beginning today.

Shaikh Rashid was the eldest son of His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai. Shaikh Rashid was a keen horse lover and was the owner of Zabeel Stables.

President His Highness Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan mourned the death of Shaikh Rashid. Shaikh Khalifa expressed his heartfelt condolences and solace to Shaikh Mohammad.

Flags will fly half-mast at all government institutions in the emirate.

Sheikh Rashid was a well-known sports figure in the UAE. He participated in a number of International and local Endurance competitions winning a number of laurels for the country. His greatest achievement was winning 2 Gold medals in the 2006 Doha Asian Olympics 120 km Endurance individual mixed as well as 120 km Endurance Team Mixed events.

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Gold inches higher, but struggles to shine

Technical - Levels

	R2	R1	S1	S2
Gold	1148	1130	1109	1097
SILVER	14.96	14.75	14.44	14.23
CRUDE OIL	47.12	45.93	43.82	42.11
COPPER	2.436	2.410	2.372	2.308
NATURAL GAS	2.712	2.693	2.635	2.612
PLATINUM	1035	1002	977	967
PALLADIUM	1014	591	568	558

Overview :

Gold futures traded modestly higher Tuesday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserves’s policy meeting next week, which could determine the direction of the dollar and dollar-denominated commodities like gold.

Gold for December delivery was marginally higher, gaining $1, or about 0.1%, at $1,122.10 an ounce, after swinging between small gains and losses in early Tuesday action.

The precious metal has been down nine of that past 11 sessions and hasn’t drawn much of a bid in recent weeks on the expectation that the Fed may raise interest rates for the first time since 2006. Interest-bearing assets like Treasurys have diminished the appeal of gold, which doesn’t bear any interest, while anticipation of a near-term rate increase has dulled expectations for gold.

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European stocks reversed earlier losses to close higher Wednesday

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European stocks reversed earlier losses to close higher Wednesday, with worries about an economic slowdown in China offset by a strong open on Wall Street. France's CAC 40 was up by 13.76 points to 4,554.92 and Germany's DAX 30 gain 32.48 points to 10,048.05. FTSE 100 also managed to close at 6,083.31 with net gain of 24.77. US stocks ended higher on Wednesday, rebounding from two days of losses. The Dow Jones 30 gain 293.03 points to 16,351.38, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 also gain 35.01 and 113.90 points to 1,948.86 and 4265.23 respectively. Asian markets traded on mix today. Japan’s Nikkei 225 which is only index traded on green note and up by 148.23 points to 18,243.63. Other Asian index like Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 50 Index is off today and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed at negative note.

Index	Value	Net Change
Dow30	16,351.38	+293.03
S&P500	1,948.86	+35.01
NASDAQ100	4256.23	+113.9
DAX 30	10,048.05	+32.48
FTSE100	6,083.31	+24.77
CAC 40	4,554.92	+13.76
Nikkei225	18,243.63	+148.23
S&P/ASX200	5,041.50	-59.96
Hang Seng50	20,934.94	0.00

SUMMARY:

Major trend of Dow Jones 30 is bearish on daily charts. It has given upside recovery in last week trading session. It is again showing good recovery from lower level. It is likely to give northward movement in upcoming session as it has give closing below 50 DMA and trading with resistance of 200 DMA on hourly chart. On lower side it has support level of 16100. If it manages to sustain above 50 DMA and gives break out above 200 DMA then it would bring a strong confidence to reach 16700. Currently it is having resistance of 16400.

INDICATOR:-

RSI is about to cross up the 50 mark on hourly chart time frame. On ADX is likely to move up with strong accumulation on chart. ADX trading above 35 mark. If it sustain above the same then index would come in positive territory with positive DI has crossed up negative DI . 

Daily FX Signals : EURCHF is looking bullish on charts

Daily FX Signals : EURCHF is looking bullish on charts: SUMMARY: The secondary trend of EURCHF is sideways on charts. In its 4 hourly chart, the pair is consolidating with strong positive bi...

EURCHF is looking bullish on charts

SUMMARY:

The secondary trend of EURCHF is sideways on charts. In its 4 hourly chart, the pair is consolidating with strong positive bias and is likely to give break out at upside. Its 30 and 200 DMA are also supporting the upcoming bullish trend in the pair. It is facing an important resistance at the level of 1.0895. If it breaks its resistance level of 1.0900 at upside then we can expect it to show further upside movement.

INDICATORS:-

RSI is sustaining in buying territory supporting the upcoming bullish trend in the pair.

MACD is also sustaining in buying territory indicating the upcoming bullish trend in the pair.

STRATEGY: EURCHF is looking bullish on charts for next few trading session. One can go for buy on dips strategy for this pair for intra day to mid term positions.

	S3	S2	S1	PIVOT	R1	R2	R3
EUR/USD	1.1108	1.1156	1.1237	1.1285	1.1366	1.1414	1.1495
GBP/USD	1.5153	1.5225	1.5264	1.5336	1.5375	1.5447	1.5486
USD/JPY	116.64	117.95	118.66	119.97	120.68	121.99	122.70
USD/CHF	0.9431	0.9498	0.9540	0.9607	0.9649	0.9716	0.9758
AUD/USD	0.6819	0.6914	0.6967	0.7062	0.7115	0.7210	0.7263
EUR/GBP	0.7229	0.7264	0.7329	0.7364	0.7429	0.7464	0.7529
USD/CAD	1.3018	1.3067	1.3163	1.3212	1.3308	1.3357	1.3453
NZD/USD	0.6224	0.6269	0.6302	0.6347	0.6380	0.6425	0.6458

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